Käyrien ulkopuolelta:
"The measures used to achieve suppression might also evolve over time. As case numbers fall, it becomes more feasible to adopt intensive testing, contact tracing and quarantine measures akin to the strategies being employed in South Korea today. Technology – such as mobile phone apps that track an individual’s interactions with other people in society – might allow such a policy to be more effective and scalable if the associated privacy concerns can be overcome. However, if intensive NPI packages aimed at suppression are not maintained, our analysis suggests that transmission will rapidly rebound, potentially producing an epidemic comparable in scale to what would have been seen had no interventions been adopted."
Tietysti kaikkien eristäminen toimii aina taudin leviämisen hillitsemiseksi mutta taloudelliset ja muut seuraukset ovat hyvin erilaiset. Yllä kirjoitin siitä, että voidaan hyvinkin joutua menemään rajoitusten kanssa edestakaisin viruksen leviämisvaiheiden mukaan. Toinen ota tuosta ylle linkatusta analyysista
"We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482 Page 2 of 20 absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced "
Mainittu "trends in disease surveillance" itsestäänselvästi vaatii tietoa jota saadaan parhaiten testaamalla. Jos halutaan olla ajoissa siis.
