En tiedä kuuluuko varsinaisesti tähän ketjuun, mutta parempaakaan en keksinyt. Kirjoitus on rokka76:n kauppalehden palstalta, asiantunteva (kansantalous) jamppa, jonka kirjoitukseen minulla ei ole juuri lisättävää:
""Tässä vuoden vanha artikkeli Economist lehdeltä:
In come the waves
Muutama ote:
NEVER before have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Property markets have been frothing from America, Britain and Australia to France, Spain and China. Rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000. What if the housing boom now turns to bust?
According to estimates by The Economist, the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the past five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs. Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom, it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). In other words, it looks like the biggest bubble in history.
The global boom in house prices has been driven by two common factors: historically low interest rates have encouraged home buyers to borrow more money; and households have lost faith in equities after stockmarkets plunged, making property look attractive. Will prices now fall, or simply flatten off? And in either case, what will be the consequences for economies around the globe? The likely answers to all these questions are not comforting.
...
The most compelling evidence that home prices are over-valued in many countries is the diverging relationship between house prices and rents. The ratio of prices to rents is a sort of price/earnings ratio for the housing market. Just as the price of a share should equal the discounted present value of future dividends, so the price of a house should reflect the future benefits of ownership, either as rental income for an investor or the rent saved by an owner-occupier.
Betting the house
America's housing market heated up later than those in other countries, such as Britain and Australia, but it is now looking more and more similar. Even the Federal Reserve is at last starting to fret about what is happening. Prices are being driven by speculative demand. A study by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) found that 23% of all American houses bought in 2004 were for investment, not owner-occupation. Another 13% were bought as second homes. Investors are prepared to buy houses they will rent out at a loss, just because they think prices will keep rising-the very definition of a financial bubble. "Flippers" buy and sell new properties even before they are built in the hope of a large gain. In Miami, as many as half of the original buyers resell new apartments in this way. Many properties change hands two or three times before somebody finally moves in.
New, riskier forms of mortgage finance also allow buyers to borrow more. According to the NAR, 42% of all first-time buyers and 25% of all buyers made no down-payment on their home purchase last year. Indeed, homebuyers can get 105% loans to cover buying costs. And, increasingly, little or no documentation of a borrower's assets, employment and income is required for a loan.
One of the best international studies of how house-price busts can hurt economies has been done by the International Monetary Fund. Analysing house prices in 14 countries during 1970-2001, it identified 20 examples of "busts", when real prices fell by almost 30% on average (the fall in nominal prices was smaller). All but one of those housing busts led to a recession, with GDP after three years falling to an average of 8% below its previous growth trend. America was the only country to avoid a boom and bust during that period. This time it looks likely to join the club.
En viitsi lainata koko artikkelia tähän, joten kiinnostuneet lukekaa se kokonaan. Artikkeleita on useampiakin.
Bottomline on se, että kyseessä on koko historian suurin kupla sen mittavuudessaan rahamäärällä, velat huomioiden mitattuna, joka on toiminut myös rahoituksen lähteenä (asuntoja vastaan on otettu kulutusluottoja).
Tämän kuplan puhkeamisella on todennäköisesti katastrofaaliset seuraukset, joita voi olla vielä tässä vaiheessa vaikea kuvitellakaan. Kupla on syntynyt suunnilleen yhtäaikaa kaikkialle, joten se myös häipyy todennäköisesti yhtäaikaa kaikkialta, ajaen USA:n, Euroopan, Australian, Kiinan, Japanin, Kanadan, koko maailman lamaan. Syvään ja pitkään sellaiseen. Se tulee olemaan seuraava K-talvi. Kondratieff talvessa olennaisinta on maailmanlaajuisesti suuret mittasuhteet saanut velkataakka, joka ei purkaannu kauniisti. Ei ole tehnyt niin ennenkään. Mitä tulee USA:han, siellä asuntojen hinnat eivät ole pudonneet sitten 1930-luvun, eli edellisen K-talven. Mutta myös velkataakka suhteessa tuloihin on korkeimmillaan sitten tuon ajan. Kun hinnat alkavat pudota, valtavia määriä rahaa imeytyy pois kulutuksesta vieden mukanaan suuria määriä työpaikkoja ja kierre on valmis. Nykyiset hinnat eivät olisi mahdollisia ilman valtavaa velkakuormaa (määrä selviää artikkelista), monissa paikoissa hinnan nousua tukee vain hinnan nousu, ei esimerkiksi saatavissa oleva vuokratuotto. Tyypillinen finanssikupla, oikein klassinen. Kuten dot.com bust. Rikkaus on toisinaan pelkkä illuusio. Vain harva voi sen realisoida pudottamatta hintoja, kun velkakuorma on tapissaan (nyt?)."
Aika hyvin se lainalaisuus toimii, että seuraava kupla on edeltäjäänsä suurempi.
