The central bank’s forecast of a drop in gross domestic product of between 3% and 3.5% this year is less than it had expected soon after the start of the conflict.
However, the expected contraction would likely be the largest recorded by a member of the Group of 20 largest economies.
Immediately after the invasion, the bank expected the economy to contract between 8% and 10% this year, and by as much as 3% next year. It now expects GDP to contract between 1% and 4% next year.
Before Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine, the central bank expected the economy to grow as much as 3% in 2022. That means the war has cost the country more than 7% of its GDP in lost output this year alone.
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A new study by research institute Bruegel estimates that higher prices have boosted Russia’s revenue from energy exports by $120 billion in the first nine months of the year. The economists estimate that Russia will record a surplus in its income from the rest of the world over its expenditures there of $240 billion this year, falling to $100 billion in 2023.
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“Russian fossil fuel exports never return—in any of our scenarios—to the levels seen in 2021,” the IEA said in a report Thursday.
The research body said Russia’s share of global exports of oil and gas could halve by 2030, and that it is unlikely that China will replace lost European markets for natural gas given its ambitions to cut carbon emissions.
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But figures released Friday indicate that Europe’s largest economies are proving more resilient to higher energy costs than had been expected. In particular, Germany’s statistics agency said Europe’s largest economy
continued to grow in the three months through September despite production cuts in some energy-intensive manufacturing.
“When you’re looking at the global outlook and the European outlook, we see a lower growth, but we are not seeing deep recessions like in Russia,” said Alfred Kammer, head of the International Monetary Fund’s European department.