1/ A new opinion poll in Russia, conducted before the Wagner mutiny, shows nearly equal numbers of Russians wanting to continue the war or start peace negotiations. However, 64% support a fresh attack on Kyiv and 58% believe the war is going well. ⬇️
2/ Pollster Russian Field has conducted the twelfth of a series of telephone surveys of Russian public opinion on the war. It should be noted that such surveys experience a high rate of refusals to participate, not surprisingly given the risks of voicing opinions in Russia.
3/ Key findings from the poll, which was conducted between 16-19 June 2023:
45% of respondents supported the continuation of the war, while 44% wanted to see peace negotiations.
If Putin decided to attack Kyiv again, 64% would support it, 23% would not support it.
4/ The number supporting peace negotiations would increase to 53% if a new mobilisation was required to continue the war. 35% would still support the war even if there was another mobilisation.
5/ 72% would support Putin signing a peace agreement tomorrow. However, 20% would want to keep fighting.
6/ 58% believe the war is going well, with only 21% believing it's going badly. This figure has barely changed since April 2022, despite all of Russia's setbacks in the meantime.
7/ Only 12% support a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. 39% want to see a fresh offensive, with another 30% preferring to hold Russia's current positions in Ukraine.
73% of respondents believe that Russia is now moving in the right direction.
8/ 69% believe that the war is strengthening Russia's authority in the world. This figure increases to 82% among viewers of state-run TV. Only 21% disagree.
62% feel that they are not personally at risk in the war; women (43%) are more likely to feel at risk than men (26%)
9/ There is widespread distrust about state-run media reporting on the war. 46% trust it, but 45% don't.
55% say they are not tired of news about the war, but 40% say that they are tired of it.
10/ 81% have heard about the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam. 44% blame Ukraine, with others blaming the United States (10%), Russia (6%) or Europe (3%). Older people and those who habitually get their information from state-run TV are more likely to blame Ukraine.
11/ 35% say they would like to wind the clock back and not go to war, but 49% say they oppose such a 'cancellation'. Men (57%) and respondents aged 45 and older (56-58%) are more likely to oppose cancellation of the war.
12/ Young people aged 18-29 (53%) are the only demographic with a majority who say the war should not have been fought.
13/ There is a strong correlation between income, age and support for the war: the wealthier or older a respondent is, the more likely they are to be pro-war, and to believe state-run media reports about it.
14/ The majority of respondents get their information from television (36%), Internet sites (18%) or Telegram channels (18%). Those who read Telegram channels are most likely to support the war's continuation, probably reflecting the influence of Russia's warbloggers. /end
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