Moreover, the WJC is a big stage for the draft year. The top 3 prospects from our Whyhockey Prospect Rankings below received tons of ice time, held large shot metric advantages while on the ice, and had their coaches trust as double underagers (this is a 19-year-olds tournament after all). Whyhockey’s season-long #1 prospect even had the golden goal!
Yes, that’s right.
Jack Hughes is not #1, and it’s not a product of his WJC injury (whatever it was or wasn’t) nor
Kaapo Kakko’s golden goal.
Hughes, an average height skinny pivot plays on one of the highest talent National Development programs since they entered the USHL junior league out in the Midwest US.
If you look at many drafting sites, the entire top-six forwards and top-four defensemen from that squad are all represented somewhere in most people’s top 45.
Good luck finding other prospects who consistently play with such talent and against such inferior talent.
This team plays against a junior league where the top 25% *may* become every day Division 1 NCAA hockey players, and are 19 or 20-years-old in the USHL. It’s a season worth of USHL All-Stars vs. some USHL team.
Prior to this year, Hughes broke the majority of records US Hockey Dev team had to break. Passing names like
Patrick Kane,
Auston Matthews,
Jack Eichel.
But unlike his brother
Quinn, or Kane, Matthews, Eichel, Jack stayed at the Dev Team for his draft year. Being a later birthday than those others may play a role, however, it’s not a satisfactory reason to risk stagnation in a big development year.
Should that knock Jack down too many spots? No, not at all. But it’s hard to be the best in a draft class if you aren’t playing at a high level.
Also, it’s not just about Hughes. Kakko is as first-rate a player and his ability to keep an upward trajectory in a professional league can’t be ignored because the Hughes family is well hyped, well known, and well-connected to NHL scouting circles.
There is a real dilemma for scouts when judging what Kaapo Kakko can do as a top center in a pro league verse men and what Jack Hughes can do playing in the fourth best junior league in North America with no challenges.
Had Jack gone to CHL or NCAA (professional overseas not an option given his age), scouts would be able to see exactly what he could do against a new competition level, and while juggling a new environment.
For now, the only challenge Jack Hughes had was WJC and while healthy he looked good but no more so than most draft-eligible first rounders do in WJC yearly.
Simply put, the Jack Hughes clear-cut #1 is media hype. On a hockey basis, it’s at best (for Jack) a 1a-1b. But there is real evidence and argument for a clear 1 and 2, with the 2 being Hughes.