Athleticin jutussa tultiin tämmöiseen johtopäätökseen:
That leaves us with four candidates, and each brings an extremely strong Selke case. The race is so tight between the group that we move into the realm of opinion — which categories you value highest will decide your final order.
For me, Karlsson drops off the list first. He's delivered a stellar season, but his usage gives me just enough pause to keep him out of my top three. He's received two minutes less ice time per game than Kopitar, Barkov and Couturier, and his performance in those fewer minutes isn't so substantially better than his competition that it makes up for the gap. In addition, much of Karlsson's elite offensive production is the product of a ridiculous 23.6% shooting percentage that screams fluke. Those concerns are just enough to have him miss out on a trip to the awards show in June.
It's appropriate that we're left with the three most-used forwards in hockey on a nightly basis as our nominees. Ice time from a coach implies trust, and these three players all have rightfully earned it this season through their stellar play. Aleksander Barkov, Sean Couturier and Anze Kopitar would all be worthy Selke winners. But which one is the most worthy?
The battle between Couturier and Kopitar really comes down to what you value more in a Selke candidate — raw point production or stellar on-ice results. Kopitar clearly has the edge if you favor the latter, as no one in the race comes close to his 90 points. But Couturier blows Kopitar away by advanced metrics. In fact, Kopitar has barely kept his head above water by on-ice Expected Goals, a stat that a Selke candidate would be expected to thrive in. Couturier, on the other hand, led our pool of candidates by Corsi RelTM and xG RelTM, and was second only to Karlsson when looking at goal-based results. In my opinion, that gives Couturier the edge as an all-around player.
As for Barkov, his case is nearly identical to that of Couturier. He brings no obvious blemishes to the table and leads Couturier barely in both points and penalty differential. But across the board elsewhere, Couturier is just a little bit better. Even Barkov's slight scoring edge is nullified by Couturier's advantage in primary point production. It's just hard to find enough statistical areas where Barkov is obviously superior to Couturier to justify putting him ahead on the ballot.
This year's Selke race is undeniably close, and there are multiple candidates who would fit the award's requirements. But on the whole, Sean Couturier appears to be the best choice. He's truly done it all this season — face opposing top lines, help to facilitate offense, rack up lots of points himself, and completely shut down the other team when the situation calls for it.
Breaking down Sean Couturier’s case for the Selke Trophy – The Athletic
Toki äänestäjät varmaan painottavat erilaisia asioita ja Kopitarin sukunimestä on ihan varmasti apua tässä kisassa, en yhtään yllättyisi vaikka esim. Bergeronikin kiilaisi tuonne finalistien joukkoon Toewsin kanssa.
