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Forwards:
Jaromir Jagr:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 77 games, 38-49-87, +9, 44 PIMS, 9 GWG, PP = 14-22-36
A whole lot of not much going on lately. If you look at a stat sheet, you see a lot of time on ice and a lot of shots, his production has fallen off. In 14 games in November, he was 6-14-20, +8. In the 14 games since, he’s 4-8-12, -9. He hasn’t had a "plus" game since November 29th, part of a team-wide problem at even strength. He hasn’t had a multi-goal game this season. Hard as it sounds, he’s not paid to try hard, he’s paid to produce -- great players find a way. He’s not doing so.
Updated prediction . . . he’ll be traded to New York.
Robert Lang:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 80 games, 24-49-73, +11, 24 PIMS, 2 GWG, PP = 12-21-33
It would be a lot to expect for Lang to keep up the 11-11-22, +8 pace he had in November. He hasn’t been that far off, though, in his 17 games since (6-9-15), although he’s been -7 since. The difference? . . . Yup, even strength. In November, he was 2-7-9 on the PP, since then he’s been 3-6-9. That and the fact that it seemed everything he threw at the net went it or almost did (11 goals on 33 shots in November). He’s been more mortal since (6/32, still not bad). He’s the Caps MVP to date, but on this team . . . big deal.
Updated prediction . . . he’ll be traded to Dallas.
Dainius Zubrus:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 67 games, 22-28-50, +13, 46 PIMS, 1 GWG, PP = 1-2-3
Just when it looks as if he’s going to break through and take the next step to being a legitimate offensive threat and a power forward to be reckoned with, he gets hurt. He’s one of those on this team, though, who is having a devil of a time at even strength. Overall, he’s 11-12-23. But the power play accounts for 6-6-12 of that. Wonder why he’s -11 on the year? All that aside, he’ll probably end up being the veteran forward who survives the great purge to come.
Updated Prediction: 60 games, 17-20-37, -16.
Peter Bondra:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 77 games, 33-28-61, +3, 46 PIMS, 7 GWG, PP = 17-11- 28
Bondra hasn’t finished a year with as bad a number as -10 since his rookie year . . . he’s -14 right now, and it isn’t likely to improve. His production at even strength has all but disappeared (7-3-10 in 38 games). The spirit is there, but one just has the feeling watching him that the end of his stay here is at hand.
Updated Prediction: He’ll be traded to Detroit.
Michael Nylander:
Pre-Season Projection: 56 games, 9-27-36, even, 20 PIMS, 1 GWG, PP = 3-7-10
Hardly seems worth it to rush him back now . . . unless you’re showcasing him for a trade, which is a real possibility (though what the Caps would get for him is negligible).
Updated Prediction: He’ll be traded to Vancouver.
Kip Miller:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 70 games, 10-32-42, +1, 18 PIMS, 2 GWG, PP = 3-13-16
Last year, he was a $950,000 bargain. This year, he’s a guy who will probably be gone after this year (if not sooner) and quickly fade into the recesses of Caps’ fans memories as one of three Millers to play for the team. He hasn’t played badly, if you look only at his accumulated statistics (at -3, he’s among the leaders in +/- on this team, for example). But he’s spent a lot of time at left wing on the top line, to little effect. He has two even strength points in his last 17 games. He has one even strength goal this season.
Updated Prediction: He’ll squeeze himself into Jagr’s suitcase when Jagr is traded to New York
Steve Konowalchuk:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 75 games, 16-20-36, +3, 68 PIMS, 4 GWG, PP = 1-1-2
One of the few players on track to hit his projection . . . but he’s doing it for Colorado.
Updated Prediction: He’ll be showing Olaf Kolzig the sights around Denver in March.
Jeff Halpern:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 79 games, 16-25-41, +6, 70 PIMS, 2 GWG, PP = 2-1-3
Mommy, make it sto-o-o-o-op! He is on a pace for a -46. There were 10 guys on the 1974-1975 inaugural team with worse numbers, but that was when there was more offense. It would be the worst such number on the Caps since Rick Green was -45 in 1978-1979. Green was later traded in a package for Rod Langway. We should be so lucky a second time. Don’t hold your breath.
Updated Prediction: He’ll be moved quietly in a flurry of other activity to Anaheim.
Mike Grier:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 80 games, 18-22-40, +3, 38 PIMS, 2 GWG, PP = 2-3-5
What was I thinking? 18 goals? Since scoring 10 goals in his first 38 games as a Cap, he has a total of seven in his last 83, three in his last 63. Part of the problem with the Caps this year is that the third line has offered almost no threat offensively, so when they have to deal with the opponent’s top line, they can end up getting a full-bore effort thrown at them. Seeing as how the third line (if you consider it to be Grier-Halpern-Battaglia) is a combined -40 (Grier being a -16), it’s been one long Stephen King story.
Updated Prediction: I have a feeling he’ll stay, if for no other reason than you can’t trade everyone, and this is a guy McPhee has had interest in for some time. Perhaps as the Caps’ season is forgotten by the larger NHL this year, the pressure we’ll be off, and he can rediscover his game . . . 76 games, 8-14-22, -21.
Brian Sutherby:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 72 games, 8-17-25, +2, 88 PIMS, 0 GWG, PP = 0-0-0
Is he a center or a winger . . . a fourth liner or a third liner . . . or a second liner . . . is he a captain-in-waiting or an 8-minute-a-night guy? Hard to tell from the way he’s been used this year (not to mention shuttled to Portland and back). Here is one guy who might benefit from being sent to Portland for the duration of this year, if only to keep him out of the septic tank that has become the Caps season where he might pick up bad habits.
Updated Prediction: He’ll end up staying because a lot of guys will be leaving . . . 62 games, 4-4-8, -8
Trent Whitfield:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 14 games, 0-1-1, even, 14 PIMS, 0 GWG, PP = 0-0-0
Looks like he’ll get more games, and he’s earned them. Of how many guys can you say that on this team? He has a role, he knows his role, and he plays that role pretty well. Give the team 10-12 minutes a night, tempo game, hit some people, be good on draws. Points are gravy.
Updated Prediction: 40 games, 1-3-4, -8.
Stephen Peat:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 23 games, 0-2-2, -2, 51 PIMS, 0 GWG, PP = 0-0-0
Did you know that Scott Gomez was picked only five slots ahead of Peat in 1998? When was the last time Peat had as many as 10 minutes ice time for the Caps in a game? . . . never. He’s averaging 5:30 for the Caps this year (that’s actually more than last year), and he might as well be selling cotton candy in Section 418 for the time he’s getting under Glen Hanlon. The lack of investment in his development as a hockey player has left Peat a one-trick pony . . . and that’s a trick for which Hanlon has expressed little affection.
Updated Prediction: Peat will see fewer total minutes for the remainder of the season than Sergei Gonchar averages per game.
Boyd Gordon:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 18 games, 2-2-4, even, 18 PIMs, 0 GWG, PP = 0-0-0
Gordon has all the makings of becoming a solid, if unspectacular professional. He can play any forward position, he’s responsible, and he’s shown some talent in taking draws. You wish he was a couple inches taller and 15 pounds heavier. One suspects he might get sent down to Portland in the wake of this Titanic of a season being put together by the Caps, but injuries and a lack of guys who can skate in the forward direction might put a halt to that idea.
Updated Prediction: 65 games, 3-9-12, -12.
Alexander Semin:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 60 games, 11-13-24, -4, 28 PIMS, 1 GWG, PP = 2-1-3
The worry with this guy is that as the Caps season deteriorates further, he’s going to pick up some bad work habits, and he’s showing some tendencies of youth (if some news reports can be believed) to resist authority and to cut corners. He has a wealth of offensive skill, but he hasn’t much consistency in his own end. The Caps don’t need that sort of combination, now or in the future.
Updated Prediction: 38 games, 7-12-19, -4.
Matt Pettinger:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 28 games, 2-4-6, even, 22 PIMs, 0 GWG, PP = 0-0-0
He’s progressed quite a bit from last year. He can be one of the "Plumbers" kind of players fans might remember in the 1980's . . . a nastier Gaetan Duschene type. After sustaining an injury on Halloween, he’s struggled to regain the offensive part of his game (1-1-2, -9 in his last 20 games).
Updated Prediction: 58 games, 5-3-8, -13
Brian Willsie:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 56 games, 10-13-23, +3, 30 PIMS, 1 GWG, PP = 0-0-0
A player who seemed ready to flourish under Glen Hanlon (2-1-3, +2 in seven games under Hanlon), one who has some offensive upside and can be an effective checker, and what happens? . . . injured. Just another story of the Caps’ season.
Updated Prediction: When he returns to the lineup, Caps fans will ask, "when did we get him?"
Bates Battaglia:
Our Pre-Season Projection: none
He started abominably, then picked up his game under Hanlon. He’s not nearly the threat he was when he played with Carolina, but he’s settled into a role as a good 3rd-4th line energy kind of guy who can create a little bit of offense. He might even be around next year, which I didn’t think possible a month ago.
Updated Prediction: 62 games, 5-9-14, -16
***************
Defensemen:
Brendan Witt:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 74 games, 2-8-10, +16, 104 PIMs, 0 GWG, PP = 0-0-0 . . . and much opponents’ equipment strewn across the ice
Well, that was a bit off base, wasn’t it? Witt has become a 3-4 defenseman, nothing more. He is not bereft of hockey sense, and he’s not without talent, but he’s never really approached the potential thought of him when he was drafted. He isn’t particularly physical, at last not nearly so as his reputation suggests, and this should be the centerpiece of his game.
Updated Prediction: Somehow, in the wreckage of this season, he’ll survive.
Steve Eminger:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 76 games, 6-18-24, +8, 38 PIMs, 1 GWG, PP = 1-2-3
He looks better than his short term last year, but he has a pretty fair way to go, too. He looks a lot like the end of Johansson’s career, which isn’t necessarily bad, since he’s going in the other direction. He hasn’t played bad defense, despite his gruesome -10 plus-minus. He hasn’t shown much in the offensive end, but one would hope he’d err on the side of playing defense at this stage.
Updated Projection: 72 games, 1-6-7, -16
Sergei Gonchar:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 80 games, 20-51-71, +18, 54 PIMs, 4 GWG, PP = 10-24-34
Gonchar has regressed considerably from the improvements he made as a defender last year. He is entirely a power play creature this year (25 of his 39 points), and he’s -22 on the top pairing. He seems less inclined than ever to take or deliver a hit. He could be the cornerstone of the defense until Eminger assumes the role 5-6 years from now, or he can play himself into trade bait, since the Caps would seem unlikely to pay the raise implicit in his next contract.
Updated Prediction: He’s a decent bet to be gone in March.
Joel Kwiatkowski:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 72 games, 1-4-5, even, 26 PIMs, 0 GWG, PP = 0-0-0
Kwiatkowski is not nearly as bad as Caps fans give him credit for, but neither can it be said that he figures prominently in the team’s plans after this year. He is a decent skater, he shows some indications of having a shot, and he can play well when he keeps it simple. But, he is this generation’s Pat Ribble. A footnote in the history of the franchise 5-6 years down the road.
Updated Prediction: 82 games, 7-7-14, -26
Jason Doig:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 78 games, 2-5-7, even, 138 PIMs, 0 GWG, PP = 0-0-0
He gives indications from time to time of having considerable raw talent. He skates well for a big man, he can hit, and he can at least get the puck to the net. But, he is prone to playing himself out of position, of going for a hit when the situation merely calls for steering the man off the puck, and is not a particularly good puck handler or passer. He doesn’t seem to figure in the team’s long term plans either
Updated Projection: 82 games, 3-11-14, -15
Rick Berry:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 24 games, 0-2-2, -3, 56 PIMs, 0 GWG, PP = 0-0-0
Berry sometimes looks as if he can be a successor to Ken Klee, other times he looks like he can be a poster boy for the WWE. He can look good on one shift, then do something incredibly stupid on the next. This is a problem Klee battled from time to time in his tenure with the Caps, taking the inopportune penalty. But Berry’s are particularly annoying, since many take place during stoppages in play.
Updated Prediction: 60 games, 1-5-6, -8
*****************
Goaltenders:
Olaf Kolzig:
Our Pre-Season Projection (OT losses counted as losses): 71 games, 33-28-9, 4100 minutes, 2.51 GAA, .917 SV, 4 SO
In the best of times over the last half dozen years, Kolzig has been the Caps. It’s true now, too . . . unfortunately. He probably hasn’t stolen a win for the team this year. He’s played very well in stretches, but with the team defense in front of him being its worst since the pre-Langway days, every little shortcoming has been magnified. He can be beaten high-glove, and he had a disconcerting tendency to give up five-hole goals over a 12-15 game stretch. He, like the rest of the team, had played just well enough to lose on most nights. He makes almost all of the saves he should make, but he rarely makes that 10-bell save that lifts a team. And, he’s allowed some soft goals to creep into his game, especially early, as was the case in 2001-2002. He looks like a guy who needs a change of scenery; he just doesn’t look as if he trusts the guys in front of him.
Updated Prediction: He’ll look good in maroon.
Sebastien Charpentier:
Our Pre-Season Projection: 14 games, 4-7-1, 2.68 GAA, .910 SV, 0 SO
He’s the forgotten goalie. He didn’t play badly in his opportunities, but a small goalie facing a lot of shots is a recipe for trouble. Then, a chronic condition overtook him. He should be commended for battling to get on the ice at all, but it would seem that he’s played his last game as a Cap.
Maxime Ouellet:
Our Preseason Prediction: none, we thought he’d spend all year in Portland
When he gets some game under his belt, he’ll be a worthy successor to Kolzig. He sometimes struggles with the pace of the game and the traffic it creates, but he looks to be a fundamentally sound butterfly goaltender who doesn’t resort to the flopping around and overplaying the puck that can sometimes result with young guys. When he plays calmly, he is hard to beat.
Updated Prediction: He will be the number one goalie by the end of the year, and the job will be his to lose hereafter (but he will have the next guy breathing down his neck)
Rastislav Stana:
Our Preseason Prediction: none, we thought he’d get about 25 games in Portland
He seems to have really come on. He is not the technician that Ouellet is, but he is quicker and a bit more aggressive. You wouldn’t necessarily use him for a training video, but he stops the puck, and simple and obvious as it seems, it is the goalie’s first and most important job.
Prediction: He will finish the season in Washington, with Ouellet. Sorry, Pirates fans.
Special Teams:
Our Pre-Season Projection: Power Play: 20.8 percent (3rd) – Penalty Killing: 81.7 percent (25th). It will be the power play improvement that will be what makes a difference for the Caps.
The Caps had all the makings of a top notch power play. They would be able to field two units, one a high-end skill set with the likes of Jagr, Lang, and Gonchar. They could field a competent second unit with an emerging Dainius Zubrus, Mike Grier, and Bondra to be the designated shooter. The idea was to use two squads. Well, that didn’t last long. Eventually, the team resorted to the star-line of Jagr, Lang, Bondra, Gonchar, and Zubrus to stand sentry in front. It has been as high as third in the league rankings, but this group is getting fewer and fewer opportunities to show its stuff as the Caps draw fewer and fewer penalties. It’s still a powerful weapon . . . it just isn’t getting enough chances.
The penalty killers are about where they left off last year, in the bottom third of the league. They are not particularly aggressive or adept at denying passes, and they are dreadful at clearing the puck out of the zone. Grier and to a lesser extent Zubrus are decent shot blockers, but the usual "checkers" Halpern and Grier have struggled, as they have at even strength. Unfortunately for the Caps, the problems on the penalty kill have largely negated the success they’ve had on the power play, making the net of the two extraordinarily average.
Updated Prediction . . . don’t expect either unit to change much from where it is now, but for the worse when Jagr, Lang, and Bondra are moved, thereby reducing the effectiveness of the power play dramatically.
Overall:
Pre-Season Summary Prediction: "It says here that the Caps will be a much better team offensively, more closely approximating the considerable potential their lineup suggests. They’ll need it. They will also give up more goals than last year, which will make people forget or ignore the fact that they have an elite goaltender behind them. Jagr will improve, but is probably never going to duplicate his statistics in Pittsburgh as a member of this team. Peter Bondra will improve on last year’s disappointing power play goal totals. The Southeast Division race will go down to the last weekend, but this time, Tampa will come up short. The Peerless prognosticates that the Caps will finish 82-0-0-0 . . . the NHL will interpret this as finishing 37-29-10-6, with 90 points to win the SE by one thin point over Tampa Bay."
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